The last time anyone was this unsure about the market, it was 9am and you were overwhelmed by booth after booth of gorgeous tomatoes with only a giant iced coffee in your stomach. But investors can’t just sit down and eat a croissant to calm themselves as President Trump’s mounting threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continue to put them on edge about the state of stocks and the US economy.

In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump demanded Powell lower interest rates “NOW” and called the Fed Chair a “major loser.” Trump claimed there was “virtually No Inflation,” citing food and energy costs. The president warned the economy could slow without a rate cut, but, for now, even just threats to evict Powell and take away the Fed’s independence—something Wall Street has historically been a big fan of—have investors shaking:

• All three major stock indexes fell after Trump’s latest jab, with the Nasdaq experiencing the largest drop and the Dow on pace for its worst April since 1932, per the Wall Street Journal.
• The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against six foreign currencies, dropped to its lowest level in over three years, as investors debate whether it can remain the world’s reserve currency.

Meanwhile, gold—the metal that people pour money into during uncertainty—just keeps going up. It hit a record $3,430 an ounce yesterday.

What’s Trump’s beef with Powell?

Calls to oust Powell aren’t new from the president who originally nominated him in 2017—they’ve been at odds since the pandemic.

Now, Trump wants rate cuts, but the Fed’s preferred metric still shows inflation stubbornly above its 2% goal. And Powell has stressed the importance of waiting for more information before taking action.

Last week, after the Fed chair warned that tariffs would probably increase inflation in the near term, Trump shot back that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough.” On Friday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the president was looking into whether or not he can legally fire Powell.

So, can he? Most experts (including Powell himself) say that Trump can’t, at least under current law. Any attempt to do so would likely prompt a legal battle destined to end at the Supreme Court.—MM

After Pope Francis died yesterday, millions worldwide mourned the loss of a widely admired spiritual leader. But others began wagering on who comes next.

The pope’s death sparked a flurry of online bets on the secretive papal selection process, known as a conclave (as depicted in the recent political thriller of the same name). On the prediction market Polymarket, users:

• Have already poured $3+ million into betting on the identity of the next pope, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the current favorite.
• They are also wagering on the continent the next pope will be from, his papal name, and when he’ll be elected.

It’s not the first time. Morbid bets on whether a new pope would be chosen this year were popular on prediction markets in February, when the 88-year-old Francis was hospitalized with a severe lung infection.

Centuries before Polymarket

Gambling one’s savings away to guess the next head of the Papal States was rampant in the Middle Ages, propelled by leaks from cardinals. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV passed a law threatening excommunication for anyone involved, which was repealed in 1918. Today, papal selection betting is legal in some countries, but not in the US.

Big picture: Polymarket has offered bets on other sensitive events, including whether the Titan submersible, which imploded with five people onboard, would be found in 2023.—SK

Soon, the most Mexican thing about Chipotle Mexican Grill won’t be its name: In its latest push for international growth, America’s favorite fast-casual burrito chain is planning to open its first location in Mexico by early 2026, the company announced yesterday.

More Latin American locations could follow, Chipotle suggested. The company signed a development deal with Alsea, which also operates locations in Latin America and Europe for chains including Starbucks, Domino’s, and Burger King.

Good luck, Chipotle. Yum Brands tried and failed twice to launch Taco Bell in Mexico, which the late Mexican writer Carlos Monsivais told the Associated Press was “like bringing ice to the Arctic.”

• Mom-and-pop taquerias and small chains offering fresh, cheap food are omnipresent in Mexico, so pricier, copycat cuisine is about as desirable as hot sauce in your eye.
• Chipotle is betting it’ll have a different fate thanks to its fresher and more authentic menu items (e.g., barbacoa) compared to Taco Bell, but Mexicans’ “familiarity with [Chipotle’s] ingredients does not necessarily predict success,” a senior analyst at Activner said.

Zoom out: Chipotle is in global expansion mode, and it’s planning to open 300+ new locations this year in the US and Canada. The chain is outperforming a broader restaurant slowdown and has pledged to keep its guac the same price amid tariffs. Tomorrow’s earnings report may shed light on whether it can keep that promise.—ML