Good morning. The Vatican announced that the conclave to elect the next pope will begin on May 7. On that day, as many as 135 cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel and remain sealed in there until a new pope is chosen. And by sealed, we mean…literally no contact with the outside world. “They are not allowed to send or receive messages of any kind, receive newspapers or magazines of any nature, or follow radio or television broadcasts,” the Vatican says.
Those OOO messages will go hard: “I will be out of the office beginning May 7 until you see white smoke coming from the chimney.”
—Molly Liebergall, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman
Markets: If you looked at how stocks were doing yesterday morning and then looked away, we’ve got good news. After a rough start to the day—especially for tech companies, whose earnings are due out soon—stocks mostly turned things around, with the S&P 500 and the Dow ending the day in the green.
100 days: Today marks the 100th day of President Trump’s second term, but investors may not be celebrating the milestone. After getting its biggest post-election bump ever in anticipation of Trump as a pro-business president, the S&P 500 has dropped ~7.9% since his inauguration amid economic uncertainty and market volatility, making this the worst performance for the early slice of a president’s term since Richard Nixon.
Cargo handlers are raising the alarm on a steep drop-off in foreign-made goods entering the US, meaning “out of stock” signs could multiply as soon as next month if President Trump doesn’t change his tariff tune, economists say.
Ground to a halt: Amid falling demand for China’s 145%-tariffed goods, sea-faring cargo shipments from China to the US plummeted 65% in three weeks after tariffs took effect in early April, according to the global logistics company Flexport.
Ocean freighters called off about 80 trips from China to the US this month. That’s almost 60% more cancellations than during the peak of Covid-19 supply-chain interruption in May 2020.
The main US entry point for Chinese goods, the Port of Los Angeles, expects one-third fewer arrivals next week compared to the same time last year.
Since China is one of Uncle Sam’s largest providers of everything from kitchen appliances to combs, “The consequence [of tariffs] will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products,” Apollo Global Management’s chief economist said last week. Lagging sales, layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail, and a summertime recession are likely to follow, according to Apollo.
It could be too late to save Xmas, but not the economy
To buy time, US companies have been importing more goods from other manufacturing hotbeds, including Vietnam and Cambodia, whose tariffs are on pause. Still, thousands of businesses will likely need to restock by mid-May, when retailers tend to bulk up their inventories ahead of back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.
Executives from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot told Trump last week that they foresee serious risks of barren shelves and higher prices. It’s unclear when relief might come: Trump’s administration has said there are active talks with China, but China has denied it.
Zoom out: Even if tariffs ease, a sudden resurgence in shipping demand could overwhelm ocean freighters. “Ports are designed for stable flows, not the off-again, on-again volume shifts,” the CEO of shipping company Vespucci Maritime told Bloomberg.—ML
The texts, phone calls, and emails are piling up, and they’re all urgent. If you’re fielding an avalanche of unwanted donation requests, don’t suffer in silence—or turn off your phone.
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The power went out in Spain and Portugal. The blackout hit Spain and Portugal hard, snarling traffic as signal lights went out, forcing flight delays, and knocking out some cell service, with millions left without power and hospitals and businesses relying on backup generators for hours. Meanwhile, homes just over the Spanish border in France also lost power, but it was quickly restored there. As of yesterday, the exact source of the problem had not yet been determined, but authorities said that large oscillations in power caused the country to disconnect from Europe’s grid.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada’s election. That means the former central banker will get to keep his job as Canada’s prime minister at an economically perilous time for the nation, which is reeling from President Trump’s trade war and his musings that it should become the 51st state. Carney’s path to victory was not always assured—his party trailed the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre when Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, stepped down. But as Canadians got their elbows up in response to threats from the US, they started to believe Carney was the man to take on Trump and keep the economy chugging, thereby boosting support for his party.
IBM plans to invest $150 billion in the US over five years. That includes $30 billion earmarked for R&D for manufacturing its mainframe and quantum computers in the US. It’s not the only tech company to announce a big commitment to spend in the US since President Trump took office and unveiled steep tariffs on imports from abroad. Nvidia and Apple have each separately said that they plan to spend $500 billion stateside over the next four years. Companies in other industries, including pharmaceuticals, have also committed to increased US investment.—AR
Things at Paramount are getting more awkward than Bill Belichick’s Sunday morning interview. Scott Pelley, a correspondent on CBS’s 60 Minutes, scolded the news program’s parent company on air this week as it seeks approval from the Trump administration for a merger.
The anchor spent the last moments of the latest episode addressing the recent abrupt resignation of veteran 60 Minutes executive producer Bill Owens, echoing reports that Owens left due to tightening corporate control over editorial decisions.
Pelley said that although Paramount blocked none of 60 Minutes’s stories, Owens felt that “he lost the independence that honest journalism requires.”
60 Minutes vs. corporate overlords
Paramount has reportedly applied more oversight to 60 Minutes’s coverage of the Israel-Hamas war and the Trump administration. Staying on the president’s good side seems to make more business sense than ever:
Paramount is seeking the the government’s approval for an $8 billion merger with Skydance, a studio owned by the son of billionaire Larry Ellison.
The company is also reportedly trying to settle a $20 billion lawsuit Trump filed against CBS over a preelection interview with Kamala Harris on 60 Minutes, which the president claims was dishonestly edited.
Also on Paramount’s plate…small-business troll Nathan Fielder fired shots at Paramount’s flagship streaming service, Paramount+, for taking down a 2015 episode of Nathan For You that raised Holocaust awareness in his signature boundary-pushing way.—SK
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Rendering of planned RFK stadium. Government of Washington, DC
The Washington Commanders might get to go home…or at least that’s how the franchise hopes you’ll see it. DC Mayor Muriel E. Bowser and team owner Josh Harris announced a $3.7 billion deal yesterday to bring the sports team back to the site of the beloved but crumbling RFK Stadium.
The project, which includes the single largest private investment in DC’s history, could be legacy-making for both Harris and Bowser. The proposed new development, spanning 177 acres, would include housing, retail, and park spaces centered around a brand-new 65,000-seat roofed stadium, which would enable the space to potentially host a Super Bowl.
It’s not a done deal. The Commanders have pledged to shell out $2.7 billion for the new development, while taxpayers would be on the hook for about $1 billion—mostly through an extension of the Ballpark Fee, a tax imposed on local businesses that was expected to expire in 2026. And some members of the DC Council, which must sign off on the project, have already spoken out against using public funds for a stadium.
Big picture: While most economists agree that sports stadiums are a bad use of public funds, taxpayers across the US have spent around $30 billion on them over the last three decades. Some taxpayers aren’t on board: Missouri voters, for example, rejected a Chiefs and Royals stadium tax last year.—MM
Now might be the time to book that getaway to Vegas, Miami, or Albany that you’ve been dreaming about. Flights within the US are getting cheaper as economic uncertainty spooks would-be travelers from planning trips. Last month, fares fell 5.3% from the year before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of that may have to do with the Easter travel season falling in April rather than March this year, but ticket prices were also down 4% in February, per CNBC.
And several major airlines recently pulled their optimistic forecasts for the year as travelers think twice before booking tickets. Even business travel, which is usually lucrative, is showing signs of strain, the airlines say—and companies have confirmed it, with several recently telling the WSJ they’re scrutinizing travel spending.
That means airfare sales are coming as airlines try to get butts in their narrow seats, but only if you want to stay in the country. Americans are still flying abroad and filling up your Insta feed with jealousy-inducing snaps from exotic locales. In March, 6.56 million US citizens flew out of the country, up 1.6% from the year before and up 22% from 2019, according to CNBC.—AR
Russia’s Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral three-day ceasefire in the war in Ukraine next week to mark the anniversary of victory in World War II. Ukraine says it wants a longer truce to start immediately. The US is trying to push the two into a deal but has threatened to walk away.
Amazon launched its first internet satellites in a bid to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink.
Data from credit card issuers shows that wealthy US consumers are still spending big, but lower-income shoppers are pulling back, CNBC reports.
A $60 million jet fell off a US aircraft carrier and was lost at sea, the Navy said. The mishap came after the ship turned quickly to avoid fire from Houthi rebels.
The “grandpa robbers,” who allegedly stole from Kim Kardashian and held her at gunpoint during Paris Fashion Week in 2016, are on trial.
RECS
Ride safely: If you’re cycling at night, invest in a really good bike light.**
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Retail revolution? What could a “retail revolution” look like in private equity? Brew Markets’ Ann Berry sits down with Republic to find out. Save your virtual seat.*
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Today’s Word of the Day is: oscillation, meaning “a flow of electricity changing periodically from a maximum to a minimum.” Thanks to Teresa Richard from Ringgold, GA, for taking a big swing with the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.
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The power went out in Spain and Portugal. The blackout hit Spain and Portugal 
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada’s election. That means the former central banker will get to 
IBM plans to invest $150 billion in the US over five years. That includes $30 billion 
Ride safely: If you’re cycling at night, invest in a really 
