Good afternoon investors. This week, during Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) Q2 earnings call, our favorite oddball CEO Mike Novogratz made a statement that caught our attention. When speaking about a potential Bitcoin ETF approval he stated:
“Both of our contacts from the Invesco side and from the BlackRock side gets you to think that this is a question of when, not if. The outside window is probably… four to six months… the SEC is going to approve a bitcoin ETF.”
Let’s hope he’s right.
Today’s Big Stories: 💳 PayPal’s launches a stablecoin on Ethereum 🏆 Coinbase is a winner
Plus, we’ve just redone our media kit. If you are a brand looking to get in front of a highly engaged crypto audience, go here.
Today's newsletter is 1,285 words, a 4-minute read.
📌 MUST READS
PayPal's new stablecoin… what's the point?
Big, big new this week. PayPal just launched a stablecoin, anchored to the dollar, in partnership with Paxos. The coin, creatively dubbed PayPal USD (PYUSD), will be issued on the Ethereum blockchain and will be “fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and similar cash equivalents.”
The rollout is supposedly incremental, starting this week, but soon PayPal users will be able to:
Make transfers using PYUSD
Make purchases using PYUSD
Have the ability to convert “supported cryptocurrencies” into or from PYUSD
And users of the popular payments app Venmo will soon be able to use the stablecoin too.
Now, there’s a lot to dissect here. In typical crypto fashion, some people are calling this news bigger than any Bitcoin ETF and the biggest news of 2023, while others are claiming that it is one big nothingburger. To help cut through the noise, we’re going to summarize the important implications and give a little more insight of our own.
Why People Are Excited The hype is largely because its PayPal, a dominate force in traditional finance, that’s beginning to fully embrace today’s brewing crypto economy. In other words, with 431 million existing users, PayPal has the power to start boosting crypto adoption almost immediately. They don’t need to build a customer base, they have one. And that huge customer base just got one more push into crypto.
But beyond the headline, there are several other positive catalysts to consider:
More utility, less speculation: PYUSD could increase crypto’s regular use beyond speculation. Apart from a potential uptick in crypto transactions and transfers, PYUSD will be available to an already large and growing community of external developers, wallets and web3 applications.
The more competition, the better: Although Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) are already crushing the stablecoin game, more competition breeds better products and reliability.
The Ripple effect: This announcement underscores the potential of stablecoins, especially when issued within a well-defined regulatory framework, to be foundational in modern payment systems. Such a step could inspire more fintech/payment companies to venture into the digital assets realm. It further emphasizes the urgency for regulators to streamline their approach.
What People Are Not So Excited
Perceived Limited Utility: Some see the stablecoin's functionality as redundant, noting that users can already hold U.S. dollars in their PayPal accounts.
Centralization and censorship: At the end of the day, PYUSD will still be constrained to PayPal's terms and services. With PayPal having the ability to reverse or pause transactions, freeze addresses, and so forth, many look at PYUSD as just another central bank digital currency (CBDC) that’s behind a publicly traded tech company, rather than the government.
Ethereum gas fees: Many are criticizing PayPal by choosing Ethereum, a platform known for its high transaction fees, over the dozens of rollups that cost no more than pennies. As a result, this could potentially make PYUSD transactions more costly for users, especially when interacting outside of PayPal's ecosystem.
Trust and regulation issues: The history of the collapse of Terra’s UST and the subsequent regulatory actions can make some wary of new stablecoin ventures. PYUSD's launch comes after PayPal paused its stablecoin ambitions due to reports about a probe of Paxos, which might lead to some trust issues.
Our Take:
For starters, we are firm believers that PayPal’s stablecoin is a boon for the industry. The announcement definitely deserves the hype. But, on that note, it does warrant some skepticism.
Is a PayPal stablecoin rollout good for adoption? Yes. Can it eventually boost synergies in payment networks across both traditional and decentralized finance? Absolutely. But will it have an immediate impact, rapidly boosting adoption and prices? No way.
Overall, we feel that PayPal is simply making a bet on the future of fintech and a more robust crypto ecosystem.
Not to mention, offering stablecoins is an awesome business. For context, Tether made over $800 million last quarter from stablecoin issuance. If PayPal can seize a good chunk of interest payments, it could drastically boost their net income, furnishing a consistent, low-risk stream of free cash flow.
Moving on, one of the most common critiques of PayPal’s stablecoin venture is the resounding cry of “what’s the point?” After all, if I can already send fiat instantly to a merchant or to a friend with PayPal in its current form, why on Earth would someone need to do it via stablecoin?
It’s a valid argument. However, we do want to highlight the unique snippets of utility that these stablecoins do bring to the table.
PayPal's stablecoin allows payments even if a merchant doesn't have a PayPal account. Simply, a merchant can get paid in PayPal's stablecoin through a viable blockchain address. This does makes spending a PayPal balance a bit easier and more universal.
Through PYUSD settlements, PayPal can greatly reduce the costs associated with global transactions. If PayPal can keep settlements in USD, international transactions made with PYUSD could remove the high conversion fees that merchants typically face when dealing with different currencies.
Example: Say if I was in nomading in Italy, trying to book a train ticket and the merchant couldn’t accept my Amex… but did accept PayPal. If I were to convert my fiat to PYUSD, PayPal would settle the transaction in USD instead of needing to convert to local currency. This would negate the need for PayPal to pass an extra charge to the merchant (which can go as high as 4%) on the USD to Euro conversion. Overtime, with more PYUSD transactions, PayPal could decrease its cost basis.
Now, these are two small examples of PayPal stablecoin utility. Nevertheless, it does show us that PayPal’s venture (for consumers and merchants) isn’t completely pointless.
Now, this bring us to our final point.
There are certainly unique advantages to PayPal’s stablecoin and it will be interesting to watch how it all plays out. But, at the end of the day, we can’t forget that a stablecoin like PYUSD is just another digital token backed by an often-criticized and arguably corrupted US dollar.
The real innovation in the crypto space is in decentralized, non-pegged assets like bitcoin… not in “dollars on the blockchain”, quasi-CBDC like offerings from major tech companies.
That said, we still would like to reminds folks that holding onto stablecoins in your portfolio – and, now, even on your PayPal account – is pretty pointless.
In other words, we truly believe that if you’re not using them, don’t hold them.
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Last week we provided a guide on what to look out for in Coinbase’s Q2 earnings.
Now that they have fully reported and the dust has settled, let’s take a look at how they did:
$708M in revenue vs analysts’ expectations of $628M
Staking revenue up 19% from the previous quarter
Subscription & services revenue was $335M, the first time thatnon-trading revenue surpassed trading revenue ($327M)
$97M net loss, but positive EBITDA of $194 million
Quarterly recurring operating expenses cut by 50%
Regardless of how Coinbase did in regards to analysts expectations (which they beat, by the way), if we take a step back and evaluate how the business is doing as just a business, it’s quite obvious that it is well run. For example:
It is pretty much profitable in what is a bear market.
It is making smart financial decisions such as buying back 64.5M of convertible notes for 45.5M or raising billions of dollars at low interest rates.
It is moving quickly on new tech and offerings such as BASE which has officially launched today.
If it wasn’t for regulatory concerns, this would be an easy “buy”.
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TWEET OF THE WEEK
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
The U.S. Now Has:
1. Record $17.1 trillion in household debt
2. Record $12.0 trillion in mortgages
3. Record $1.6 trillion in auto loans
4. Record $1.6 trillion in student loans
5. Record $1.0 trillion in credit card debt
Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Aug 8, 2023
7.22K Likes 2.59K Retweets 521 Replies
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