Welcome to Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Today’s edition unpacks how the stock market is moving ahead of the big announcement, Tesla’s delivery numbers, and more. Was this email forwarded to you? Join 190,000 self-directed investors gaining an edge every morning. Sign up here. 

America’s Liberation Day is here

President Trump is set to unveil his tariff agenda Wednesday afternoon from the Rose Garden.

But beyond time and place, details remain elusive.

In any case, the latest updates will not only test global trade norms, but investor patience. 

Given the non-stop barrage of White House news and mixed economic signals, the stock market has remained surprisingly resilient in recent weeks.

Volatility as measured by the VIX — Wall Street’s fear gauge — hasn’t reached extreme levels, so as uncertain as markets feel, things are relatively steady. 

But anticipation has its limits. Wall Street expects answers today, especially with bearish sentiment running high and US equities coming off their worst quarter since 2022. 

“The swash-buckle tone being adopted by the Trump administration now generates more apprehension than confidence,” said ING strategist Padhraic Garvey. 

Still, markets appear to be leaning into more hope than fear. The S&P 500 is down about 8% from its February 19 record, though it’s enjoyed a modest bounce the last two trading sessions. 

That may reflect one of two investor beliefs: Either the White House won’t go too far with tariffs, or that the tariffs themselves matter less than finally achieving clarity.

Investors, after all, can model the economic impact of tariffs. Indecision is another matter. 

President Trump’s team in recent days has weighed imposing a 20% universal tariff on most imports against reciprocal tariffs that would vary by country.

However, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the US Trade Representative’s office is preparing a third option — a middle-ground, across-the-board levy on a small group of nations, at less than 20%. 

The introduction of yet another option only muddies the outlook further for investors ahead of the official decision. 

In one sense, the greatest risk isn’t necessarily an aggressive tariff policy. It’s the limbo that keeps capital on the sidelines and businesses reluctant to spend or hire. 

Recent data underscore this point.

The ISM manufacturing index came in softer than expected Tuesday, hovering in contraction territory. Construction spending also showed signs of slowing. 

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings in February came in just below expectations.  

Notably, too, the Atlanta Fed updated its economic growth projection Tuesday, and it now estimates a 3.7% contraction for the first quarter of 2025, substantially worse than its previous estimate of a 2.8% contraction, which is reflected in the chart below.

Many on Wall Street might argue that Liberation Day isn’t about trade policy itself — it’s a referendum on clarity. When investors and businesses know what comes next, capital moves freely. 

Until then, it waits.

Market snapshot

Elsewhere:

💰️ Trump’s tariffs will take effect immediately. That’s according to the White House, though as stated, it remains unclear what that will actually entail. The announcement is due at 4 p.m. ET.

📉 Tesla stock ticked up ahead of its deliveries report. Wall Street expects the EV maker to reporter quarterly deliveries of about 380,000 vehicles late Wednesday. That’s roughly equal to the 387,000 seen in the first quarter of 2024. However, the stock has dropped 36% through February and March, the second-worst two-month streak ever. (Barron’s)

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About me:

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day, unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at phil@openingbellmedia.com.