Welcome back investors. It’s officially June, and the upbeat summer weather seems to be making its way through financial markets despite concerns on tariffs and geopolitics. Today’s newsletter unpacks the numbers behind the optimism.

Investors ignoring bears

Bearish pundits have warned of portfolio and economic armageddon for months, yet the data reflect a more upbeat reality.

Cooling inflation and strong earnings have softened geopolitical fears, and investors seem increasingly comfortable tuning out mixed messaging out of the White House.

The S&P 500 just posted its best May in 35 years, rising more than 6% in four weeks.

And nothing else in the stock market looks like a recession signal. Through the first quarter, the index’s earnings per share rose 11.1% compared to a year ago — beating the long-term average — while profit margins ticked up to 13.3% and revenues grew 4.6%, according to LSEG data.

From April 8 to Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18.6%, nearly erasing its losses between February 19 and April 8.

Technical indicators confirm the broad-based momentum.

As of last week, more than 60% of large-, mid- and small-cap stocks are above their 50-day moving averages, above their historical average.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s closely-watched real GDP model is now forecasting 3.8% growth for Q2, which would mark the second-highest reading in the last 14 quarters.

Again, that’s acceleration, not a slowdown.

Much of markets’ resilience stems from a growing tolerance for President Trump’s tariff rhetoric. As he laid out in The Art of the Deal three decades ago, an aggressive opening move is meant to shock, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be walked back.

Investors have caught on, and markets now treat many of his pronouncements as background noise.

That dynamic played out Friday, when stocks barely budged after the president announced via Truth Social that China had “TOTALLY VIOLATED” its trade agreement with the US.

To be sure, tariff threats have dampened consumer sentiment and complicated corporate planning. But they’ve left the hard data — and the stock market — largely unscathed.

Today, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has climbed back to expensive levels at 21.5, with the Magnificent Seven leading the way just like old times.

Now, this is not to say risks have evaporated. Political barbs will continue to fly, trading chop isn’t going away, and the president of the United States will continue to tweet unpredictably.

But all signs point to a more resilient economy and a more focused investor base than the mainstream narrative would suggest.

The bears are still talking. But markets for now aren’t inclined to listen.

Market snapshot

The energy stock set to outpace the S&P 500

We interviewed a veteran investor to get his highest-conviction stock pick for the next 12 months. He told Best Ideas Club members the name he expects to skyrocket for years to come.

Unlock the investment thesis here.

Elsewhere

📊 A busy week of earnings and data. Friday’s jobs report highlights the week ahead, and the JOLTS numbers are due Tuesday. Campbell’s reports earnings today, followed by CrowdStrike, Dollar General, and Hewlett Packard on Tuesday. Look for a rate cut from the European Central Bank Thursday.

🏗️Trump says steel tariffs will increase to 50%. On Friday evening, the president announced tariffs on imported steels would double from 25%. In after-hours trading, shares of Cleveland Cliffs jumped more than 25%, while Nucor and Steel Dynamics both jumped double-digits. (Barron’s)

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Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at phil@openingbellmedia.com.