• March 12, 2024

Will Investors Upvote Reddit?

Plus: The 493 other stocks in the S&P 500 are alive and well. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

 
March 12, 2024

 

 

 

 

 

Good morning.

Elon Musk is better at giving people grief on X than he is at giving away money from his charity. 

By law, charities are required to give away at least 5% of their assets each year, but tax filings reported by The New York Times show that the Tesla/X/SpaceX CEO’s Musk Foundation didn’t do that in both 2021 and 2022. In the first year, the foundation fell short by $41 million, and in 2022, it was even worse, missing by $193 million. The charity could be slapped with a 30% penalty. While the foundation donates to St. Jude’s Children’s Hospital and charities under the United Nations, it also sets money aside for the Ad Astra School, a learning center co-founded by Musk with only a handful of students, half of whom are children of SpaceX employees. The foundation also donated to OpenAI, which began as a nonprofit and now has a valuation of $80 billion. Cause, ya know, they’re a real charity case.

 

 

SOCIAL MEDIA
Reddit Readies for IPO as it Works Toward Profitability 
Photo of Reddit CEO Steve Huffman

Reddit is praying investors will click the “upvote” button.

The social media website — and home of the best relationship dilemmas since Jerry Springer — filed paperwork on Monday announcing its intention to raise up to $748 million in its upcoming initial public offering, pegging its valuation around $6.4 billion. The Reddit IPO has been a long time coming, but now the company is raring to go, despite the fact it has never once turned an annual profit. Hey, it worked for Uber, didn’t it?

You Live by the LLM, You Die by the LLM

Reddit isn’t the most high-maintenance of social media platforms. The vast majority of curating and managing its esoteric subreddits (the myriad forums that make up the site) is done by the users themselves. In its IPO filing, Reddit compared its moderation approach to a “democratic city, wherein everyone has the ability to vote and self-organize, follow a set of common rules, and establish community-specific norms.” 

However, turning user information into advertising dollars, the typical social media playbook, has yet to yield an annual profit for Reddit since it was founded in 2005. In the past year, Reddit has been on the warpath trying to eke out more value from its platform and ended up majorly upsetting its power users in the process. But Monday’s IPO filing mentions a whole new revenue stream: being a training ground for other companies’ Large Language Models (LLMs). Reddit is selling itself as an invaluable source of “authentic and constantly updated human-generated experience,” i.e. if you train an LLM on it, it will learn to sound like real people, or at least, like people who post on Reddit. The only problem is that by licensing the Redditverse out to AI companies, Reddit may be signing its own death warrant:

  • Reddit entered a new partnership with Google in February that gave the tech giant access to Reddit’s data for AI training purposes, one week after Bloomberg reported Reddit had signed a $60 million-per-year AI training deal with an unnamed company.
  • That amount is nothing to sniff at, but Reddit warns in its filing that LLM-powered internet services could eat into its business. “Redditors may choose to find information using LLMs, which in some cases may have been trained using Reddit data, instead of visiting Reddit directly,” the company said.

Keeping It In the Sub-Family: While some Reddit users have become disillusioned in recent months, the company is trying to win them back by offering them stock. It’s even starting up a whole subreddit dedicated to answering questions about the IPO called r/RDDT, according to its filing. It’s kind of like if Twitter were to go public and then respond to users’ tweets about the process which, to be honest, sounds like just the sort of thing Elon Musk would do if he hadn’t spent $44 billion taking the whole thing private.

 

 

MARKETS
The Rest of the Stock Market is Catching Up to Big Tech

The S&P 500 has 493 other stocks, too. Investors have started to notice. 

After a relatively dismal 2023 and start of 2024, many stocks in the broader market are finally beginning to catch up — and in some cases surpass — the Magnificent Seven tech players that almost single-handedly lifted the entire market to its recent all-time highs, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis published Monday.

The Dog Days Are Over

Cracks already started to show earlier this year in the foundation of the seven-company bloc — Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla — that once fueled the market rally, with Apple and Tesla in particular beginning to slip. But persistent optimism over a so-called soft-landing (despite the frequent optimism-tempering language of Fed Chair Jerome Powell) has lifted smaller players to fill the vacuum and continue a broader runup in equities.

The S&P 500 is up around 33% in the past year and closed last Thursday just a half-point shy of a record. Hope for taming inflation and looming rate cuts has helped lift companies of all stripes, especially what could be called Small or Mid Tech players:

  • Tech stocks overall are up over 10% this year, according to WSJ analysis. The AI-hype train has trickled down to Super Micro Computers, up 300%, while Carvana, up 61%, can finally see an escape path from the stranglehold of high-interest rates.
  • Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, which tracks the type of small-cap companies hit particularly hard by inflation and high borrowing costs, is up nearly 30% since an October fallow period.

“With inflation coming down and the Fed no longer fighting you, it’s just a better long-term case for risky assets,” Joseph Amato, chief investment officer at Neuberger Berman, told the WSJ.

Over Their Skis: Still, after largely renouncing growth-at-all-cost strategies last year in favor of, you know, actual profits, investors may be beginning to relapse. Companies in the S&P 500 are trading at an average price-to-earnings ratio of around 21, per the WSJ, above typical norms and approaching 2022’s level of hyper-optimism. Sometimes there’s no better drug than hope.

 

 

CONSUMER
Airbnb Says Hosts Can No Longer Use Indoor Cameras

In 1984, paranoid pop singer Rockwell sang “I always feel like somebody’s watching me.” Four decades later, short-term rental customers say they know the feeling.

In response to guests’ calls for privacy, vacation rental service Airbnb has banned the use of indoor cameras across its listings globally.

We Won’t Be Watching

Opening your home — or second home — to strangers, even paying ones, can be nerve-wracking for some hosts. But vacation travelers also don’t like the feeling that Big Brother is peeking over their shoulders while they read an Emily Henry novel.

Airbnb previously allowed hosts to install indoor security cameras in common areas like living rooms and hallways, but not in intimate spaces like bathrooms or bedrooms, as one visiting couple found in Brazil in 2022. And any cameras had to be clearly visible and disclosed to guests, so no secret nanny cams hidden inside teddy bears. 

But beginning April 30, there will be no exceptions: 

  • In a blog post Monday, Airbnb didn’t specify how many hosts use indoor security but said the majority of listings don’t, so the new rule shouldn’t have a major impact on its host clientele.
  • Airbnb also said that hosts now need to provide the general locations of outdoor cameras and decibel readers before guests book a reservation. Airbnb said the changes were made in collaboration with guests, hosts, and privacy experts.

Customer is Always Right: Despite Airbnb’s size and success, it continues to deal with the types of issues associated with plucky new startups. Its most consistent problem has been poor customer satisfaction regarding quality and prices promised on listings, a point CEO Brian Chesky highlighted in an interview with Bloomberg last year. Eliminating indoor cameras is one move to help appease guests. So, if you do check into a property with a funky smell or one that is half as big as promised, at least you won’t be on camera when you start cursing.

 

 

Extra Upside
  • Social slights: Trump opposes TikTok ban and calls Facebook the ‘true enemy of the people.’
  • Long commute: American employees don’t live as close to work as they used to.
  • To the moon: Bitcoin value surpasses $72,000, sets all-time record.

 

 

Disclaimer

¹ This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be construed as tax advice. You should consult a tax professional.

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