If there are two things Americans love to do, it’s 1) immediately delete any text asking for an election campaign donation and 2) put $20 on their pick for president. Bolstered by a recently lifted ban on election betting, money is pouring into prediction markets as platforms compete with polls as indicators of what’s to come in November.

A federal appeals court has allowed betting platform Kalshi to take wagers on the upcoming US election. This month, bettors have used the platform to wager over $12 million on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, according to the app’s founder.

Ones to know. Three platforms now rule the prediction market space: Kalshi, PredictIt, and Polymarket. PredictIt and Polymarket have operated for longer than Kalshi—PredictIt because of a loophole, Polymarket because it’s an offshore crypto platform—with Polymarket bringing in the most. It has taken in $1.9 billion worth of bets on the election.

But the polls…

Prediction markets may be skyrocketing in popularity, but they deviate from what’s shown in national polls. As of Sunday:

• Two nationwide polls showed Harris ahead of Trump, and one showed them equal.
• Trump is up 55% to 45% for Harris on Kalshi, Polymarket has Trump with a 56% chance of winning and Harris at 44%, and PredictIt shows Trump’s campaign in the lead as well.
• Most election forecasts, like 538’s, show Harris with a slightly better chance of winning.

What gives? Fans of prediction markets say that they are a more sophisticated way to foresee political events than polls as the markets respond to new information in real time and something (money) is at stake. Critics, however, argue that prediction markets can be easily manipulated, such as a recent big bet on Trump that could have swayed the odds in his favor, or a post on X by Elon Musk to his millions of followers that hyped betting markets as “more accurate than polls.”

Zoom out: Prediction markets are popular now, but there’s little faith in their ability to appeal to large-scale institutional investors and stick around long term.—CC

Goldman Sachs’ profit jumped 45% in monster quarter. The investment bank made $3 billion of profit on revenue of nearly $13 billion in Q3, it reported yesterday, surpassing even the rosiest of expectations. Bloomberg reported that it was the best quarter ever for Goldman’s stock trading unit, putting the group on track for a record year. And it wasn’t just Goldman: Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase all beat forecasts, largely thanks to gains in trading revenue. Executives credited optimism around the US economy, along with the Fed’s interest rate cuts being likely to encourage more dealmaking.—AE

US tells Israel to let more aid trucks into Gaza. In a letter to the Israeli government sent this week, the Biden administration said Israel has to “reverse the downward humanitarian trajectory” in Gaza or risk losing US military aid. US leaders warned of “implications” for future weapons supplied to Israel if the country doesn’t boost aid truck crossings in Gaza and facilitate other aid, including allowing the Red Cross to visit Palestinian detainees in Israel who are reportedly being abused. The US gave Israel 30 days to stop obstructing aid crossings and “demonstrate a sustained commitment” to halting the humanitarian crisis. Following two weeks with no aid truck crossings, some US officials fear that many people in northern Gaza could die of starvation within the week.—ML

Starbucks is scaling back discounts. The coffee giant’s new head honcho, Brian Niccol, aka “the LeBron James of CEOs,” just blocked your next cheap iced caramel macchiato like he was chasing down Andre Iguodala in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals. Under Niccol, Starbucks is reportedly pivoting from discounts and promotions to refocus on selling premium coffee and seasonal drinks. Starbucks and other food chains began offering discounts earlier this year to attract cash-strapped customers, but with inflation easing, expect many of these promotions to end. Niccol also said the discount cutback will reduce strain on workers, who are often overwhelmed when the company offers coffee and a breakfast sandwich for $6.—AE

First they locked up your moisturizer, and now they are taking it away for good. Yesterday, Walgreens said it will close 1,200 US stores, about one in seven locations, by 2027. The retailer will shutter 500 stores by the end of next year.

CEO Tim Wentworth has spent his first year at the company implementing a turnaround plan that includes a hard pivot away from his predecessor’s investments in primary care clinics and foregoing expensive leases. But it’s not just Walgreens—business is rough for rival chains that also sell Maybelline, Mucinex, and Monster energy drinks.

• Rite-Aid said it would close 800 stores as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing last October.
• CVS announced earlier this month it would cut an additional 2,900 jobs on top of the 5,000 it cut last year.

The widespread closures could push even more rural and minority communities into “pharmacy deserts.” Roughly 46% of US counties had a pharmacy desert, or a populated area 10+ miles from a retail pharmacy, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Big picture: Drugstores have pinned their struggles on the rise of online retailers like Amazon and population decline. But an FTC report also lays some blame on the three giant pharmacy benefits managers—companies that act as middlemen to negotiate drug prices—for “squeezing” pharmacies by lowering reimbursement rates.—MM

Abu Dhabi’s plan to increase tourism is taking shape—specifically, a Sphere. Yesterday, Sphere Entertainment and the city’s Department of Culture and Tourism announced that the overgrown plasma orb in Las Vegas will get a sibling in the UAE capital, which wants more visitors.

Have a ball, Abu Dhabi: It stands to get more than a concert venue that is most definitely not square. Sphere Entertainment’s studios unit creates or modifies content that can look good inside its venue. It’s also built a franchise model that it hopes will create more Spheres that pay for the content. Abu Dhabi is said to be financing construction and paying a franchise fee to get its Sphere, and then will be on the hook for recurring fees to use Sphere content, tech, and IP.

James Dolan, Sphere Entertainment CEO, said the company’s goal is to build “a global network of venues.” But this has proven tricky. London, which was initially announced as the location of the second Sphere, axed the plan due to light pollution concerns.

Sphere of influence: Abu Dhabi is an investing and tourism powerhouse. It has a Louvre Museum, a Formula 1 race, and a Frank Gehry-designed Guggenheim location opening next year. It brought in 24 million visitors in 2023 and wants 39 million annually by the end of the decade. No word yet on how much the Abu Dhabi Sphere will cost or when it may open.—HVL

Things that were popular in the 1970s that are trendy again: ABBA, bell-bottoms, and the sexiest of them all—union representation. US workers filed 3,286 petitions with the National Labor Relations Board this fiscal year, up from 1,638 three years ago. That is the first increase during a presidential term since the Gerald Ford administration in the mid-’70s, according to the Associated Press. President Biden touted the historic surge as proof that his pro-labor policies are working, contrasting his record with the Trump presidency, when there was a 22% decline. Per the AP, 16% of voters in 2020 were part of a union household, which is prevalent in the crucial battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.—AE