The Real Winner of the 2024 Elections: The Crypto Industry |
November 13, 2024
Insights and analysis for the professional investor
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Hi readers,
In today’s newsletter, Felician Stratmann from Outerlands Capital illustrates how crypto market returns today exhibit a power law distribution, where a few top performers can significantly boost a portfolio’s overall results.
Then, Christopher Perkins from CoinFund discusses how the 2024 elections marked a significant turning point for the crypto industry, with a pro-crypto president-elect advocating for the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the planet,” paving the way for a shift from regulatory enforcement to a clearer, more predictable regulatory framework that will facilitate mainstream adoption and innovation in the sector.
Many digital asset investors benchmark themselves to bitcoin, at least psychologically. Whether or not bitcoin is the right benchmark, it has certainly been a tough one to beat over the last few years — so tough that some market participants seem ready to throw in the towel on alts. But has bitcoin always been this tough to beat?
We reviewed data going back to 2019 for the top 150 tokens by market cap (excluding memecoins and with a minimum volume requirement on major CEXs) to see what it took to beat bitcoin over the years. We picked the top 150 tokens as a starting point to illustrate the universe of tokens that a manager of a liquid token strategy, with some liquidity considerations and reasonable AUM, may realistically evaluate. Note that until late 2020, there were fewer than 150 tokens that met these requirements (on account of the liquidity filter).
With this universe in mind, we examined how many tokens in the top 150, on any given day, outperformed bitcoin over the next year. At certain points in 2019 and 2020, it seems like beating bitcoin was easy, with many tokens beating it by a wide margin (north of 1000% over bitcoin’s own generally stellar return, on average). What’s more, it used to not require too much exploration out of the scale of market cap to find the tokens beating bitcoin, with an average market cap rank of the outperformers of ~30 pre-2020.
Post-2021, the picture is different. Only 10-20% of the top 150 have beaten bitcoin in any 365 day period over the last few years, with average outperformance vs bitcoin also moderating to around +100%. The average market cap rank of tokens beating bitcoin over the last few years has also drifted higher —oscillating around the 60-80 rank mark.
What does this tell us? For one, it is clear that capturing the winners takes considerable skill — perhaps more so now than it did 5 years ago. The cryptocurrency market has evolved since the heady days of easy monetary policy, with tangible results now expected to accompany the vision of growing crypto projects. Still, the figures suggest that selecting just a handful of high conviction names could leave an investor with low odds of beating bitcoin.
It is also clear that smaller projects continue to hold significant potential, and that even though the crypto market has matured, performance for the top names, even in a liquidity and size constrained universe, is still significant (>100% over bitcoin).
These points suggest that returns in crypto markets today largely follow a power law type distribution, with a handful of outperformers capable of driving an overall positive result for a portfolio. To this end, diversification still seems underappreciated by investors in the liquid token space. Still largely a collection of start-up stage companies, investors could benefit from adopting VC-style approaches to diversification, while reaping the benefits of the liquid secondary market. Alts have a bright future, but it won’t mean investing will be easy.
Disclosure: The information herein is for general information purposes only and is not investment advice. An investment involves a high degree of risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please see Outerlands Capital terms & conditions.
The Real Winner of the 2024 Elections: The Crypto Industry
For the crypto industry, the elections in 2024 were a game changer. With 287 “pro-crypto” members of Congress and a president-elect who has proclaimed that the U.S. will be the “crypto capital of the planet,” the industry is poised to be on an accelerated path toward mainstream adoption. As market participants digest the potential impact, one thing is certain: a pivot from “regulation by enforcement” to a regulatory regime where clear, transparent and predictable rules are prioritized will be a major unlock for the space. The inevitable regulatory de-risking that will follow will open the door to a new class of markets, products and applications. Here are some verticals that could thrive in this new environment:
Decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi is one of the most exciting crypto-powered innovations where applications deploy “smart contracts” to replace intermediaries, offering universal access to trading, borrowing, lending and myriad other financial services. To date, regulators have remained steadfast in their insistence that intermediaries must be required, undermining the fundamental innovation of DeFi. A favorable regulatory climate will change this. A clear regulatory framework could also pave the way for token holders to compliantly share in protocol revenue — something long sought by industry participants.
Artificial intelligence: With artificial intelligence (AI) exponentially accelerating and AI “agents” arriving years earlier than expected, the openness, transparency, scale and even “proof of personhood” achieved by integrating crypto and AI could pave the way for responsible innovation across both technologies.
Fixed income markets. Interest rates are the backbone of traditional financial markets. Nascent fixed income markets are poised to grow as financial institutions, now facing less regulatory resistance, enter global crypto markets. Benchmark yields like the composite ether staking rate (CESR), and perpetual swap funding rates, will bring the utility of the $500 trillion interest rate swap market to the crypto space, appealing to hedgers and speculators alike.
Utility tokens. During the SEC’s regulation by enforcement regime, tokens that demonstrated utility were often targets for enforcement. As a result, memecoins — tokens with no utility — flourished. A favorable regulatory climate could refocus the market on utility — something that could fuel additional mainstream adoption.
Decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN). DePIN uses the incentivization of tokens to drive mass community participation, allowing for the creation of large, decentralized physical networks. Across telecommunications, mapping, computing and geolocation industries, these networks are providing more scalable and cost efficient solutions than their centralized peers.
Trump 2.0 and the bipartisan, pro-crypto Congress will usher in a brave new world for the crypto industry. A regulatory environment that encourages innovation, rather than stifles it, will finally give the institutions the confidence to enter the market. And entrepreneurs, no longer shackled by the threat of regulatory sanction or personal liability, will be free to focus on building. The future could not be brighter.
