• December 14, 2022

Holly Jolly Inflation News

Plus: Moderna’s Covid jab may fight the other “C” disease, Cancer ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

December 14, 2022 Read in Browser

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Masterworks

Good morning.

Save the last TikTok dance for us. Like parents of tweens pretending they’re not on it too, some members of Congress want to ban the social media app from the smartphones of America.

Bipartisan legislation has been introduced aimed at blocking all transactions between American users and any social media platform “under the influence” of Chinese or Russian ownership, according to a release from the office of Senator Marco Rubio, who is sponsoring the bill. Rubio will get support from House legislation with the same aim — assuaging fears that TikTok is being used by its Chinese owners to spy on Americans and control what content they consume. The legislation is a long shot, though, and Congress doesn’t seem especially good at TikTok challenges.

Morning Brief

The EU slaps global trade with a new green tax.

November’s CPI numbers could spell a holly jolly season.

Moderna inches toward another blockbuster.

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Climate policy

EU Strikes Deal to Introduce Carbon Tax on Imports

Europe’s latest scheme to go green is likely to cost its trading partners plenty of green.

The EU struck a deal on Tuesday to impose a carbon-emissions tax on imports into the bloc. EU lawmakers have been hammering out the first-of-its-kind international trade deal for over a year, and it’s liable to cause some friction with Europe’s trade partners.

Green Policies Cause Red Faces

The new legislation goes into effect in October next year, but at first will only apply to a set list of carbon-intensive imports including aluminum, steel, cement, and fertilizers. Other nations including the UK, Canada, and the US have considered introducing similar taxes but the EU is leading the pack by actually doing it. News of the deal isn’t music to the ears of Europe’s international trading partners, including the US, who argue the levies will increase the prices of their goods, making them less competitive.

This isn’t the first piece of green legislation to drive a wedge into EU-US relations, and further illustrates how delicate the global trading ecosystem is:

President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act included tax incentives for domestic-made electric vehicles and batteries, a move which rankled EU lawmakers who said it broke international trade rules and would drain talent from their own countries.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in November countries have to be careful to design green policies that are not “discriminatory” and don’t “favour domestic goods.”

Own-Goal: The new green legislation comes at a moment when the bloc is mired in a dirty corruption scandal. Four suspects including an EU vice president were arrested this weekend and charged with suspected bribery in connection to Qatar’s bid for the World Cup. The Belgian police force has raided 19 homes so far, and posted a picture of €1.5 million in cash which it says it found during its investigations. Police have not yet issued a statement on whether they plan to twirl their mustache and gather all suspects together in the drawing room…

– Isobel Asher Hamilton

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Macroeconomics

Rejoice! The CPI Rose Just 0.1% Last Month

Macroeconomically, it’s a most wonderful time. For the fifth month in a row, the rate of inflation has slowed, and just in time for Christmas.

The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, an increase of 7.1% from a year ago, well below Wall Street’s estimates. Investors took the data as a sign that those elves at the Federal Reserve have finally grasped the monetary policy reindeer by the antlers, which would be a gift to the market and consumers desperate for interest rate relief.

You Better Not Pout

Upon hearing the good news, Wall Street cracked open a carton of vintage eggnog. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all soared in the morning session before easing back down. End-of-the-year stock rallies are typical, but because they’re coinciding with easing inflation this time, markets are more than excited for what comes next. Do Tuesday’s numbers signal a Santa Claus rally and a happy New Year, or will Old Saint Nick get lost on a foggy eve?

A closer look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November report shows that, from October to November, food and housing prices continued to increase, albeit more slowly than expected. On the flip side, the cost of energy, medical care, and used cars – which were a real sore spot in the initial inflation burst – have all dipped. But is inflation really fading or just taking a holiday break?

Today, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the seventh time this year, likely approving a 0.5% hike, which is .25% less than the last four hikes, possibly hinting at a more dovish 2023.

The National Retail Federation said a record 196 million Americans shopped in stores and online over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 10% increase from last year. The trade group expects total holiday spending to reach $960 billion, a healthy bump compared to last year’s $889 billion.

“If we get a decent amount of growth…a solid amount of retail sales, and if we don’t get too much hawkish rhetoric from (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell, I really do believe you have a coiled spring ready for that Santa Claus rally,” The Street’s Martin Baccardax said. 
 

One big lump of coal? It’s pretty rare to see stocks fall dramatically in December, so some experts aren’t hedging their bets. “I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best,” SoFi’s Liz Young told MarketWatch. Like A Christmas Carol’s Jacob Marley, the rally could be as dead as a doornail.

– Griffin Kelly

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Biotech

Preliminary Study Shows Promise for Moderna’s Skin Cancer Vaccine

When eggheads claimed the best part of the COVID vaccines was the developments in mRNA science, they weren’t lying. It might even cure skin cancer.

On Tuesday, Moderna announced encouraging results in an early study of its mRNA vaccine that could help prevent the recurrence of melanoma — and said the tech could likely be applied to other types of cancers as well.

Skin in the Game

To be clear, Moderna’s vaccine wouldn’t be a one-size-fits-all, vaccinate-everyone-at-birth big swing to eradicate skin cancer. Preventing recurrence is the key phrase, and the vaccine is developed specifically to work in conjunction with Keytruda, a cancer immunotherapy treatment from Merck, to reduce relapse or death for patients following surgical procedures to remove melanoma. But for the millions of cancer survivors who remain at high-risk for another bout with the disease, the development could be lifesaving.

Scientifically speaking, Moderna’s new jab flips the vaccine equation on its head. The injection is technically designed to help treat diseases rather than prevent infections — yet another development that could radically change medical science. The process for applying the vaccine remains complicated to say the least, but the early study results are worthy of attention:

The 150-volunteer study, which still needs to be peer-reviewed, found that combining the vaccine with Keytruda reduced the risk of relapse or death for patients by about 44% when compared to patients who take Keytruda alone.

Each shot, however, is uniquely designed for each patient. Moderna starts each case by conducting a biopsy of a patient’s tumor, then incorporates specific genetic codes into the vaccine best designed to trigger the strongest immune response from each patient to target and destroy cancer cells — not unlike how its COVID vaccine helped the body identify and destroy the coronavirus.

The company says it’s planning Phase 3 trials early next year, paving the way for regulatory approval.

Run it Back: Moderna’s stock ticker unsurprisingly spiked yesterday on the news it may have another blockbuster on its hands. But in truth, its last blockbuster, the COVID jab, was an unexpected diversion for the company from what had been a years-long process to bring the mRNA cancer vaccine to fruition. Moderna and Merck launched a Phase 2 trial of the jab way back in 2019, and now they’re ready to finish what they started — with the possibility to expand beyond just skin cancer treatment. While Keytruda is a leading drug to combat melanoma, it’s used in all types of other cancer and lymphoma treatments as well. Its successful pairing with Moderna’s jab in one type of patient leaves plenty of optimism for similar vaccines to fight other types of cancers. Good riddance.

– Brian Boyle

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Extra Upside

The juice is not loose: OJ prices rise as Florida orange production falls to an 80-year low.

Blue cat people: Can Avatar 2 save a bruised and battered box office?

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