Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin Are Telling The Bears They Are Wrong
To investors, Liberation Day was about one month ago. It feels like years ago at this point. But the Declaration of Economic Independence brought market uncertainty, chaos, fear, and a hell of a lot of screeching from the cheap seats about how the economy was going to be destroyed. All that noise ended up being just that — noise. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the month of April and the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 1% in the same timeframe. And to think there are still people talking about the Great Depression. Ridiculous! It is insane how disconnected the conversation has gotten from reality. As I have continued to say, the fear-mongering and doomsday predicting is going to look ridiculous in hindsight. You may ask why I am confident in that prediction and the answer is really simple — markets are forward-looking. Investors understand the uncertainty around tariffs. There is no secret here. Everyone is talking about it. Investors know consumers are slowing their spending, while companies are making business decisions that will contribute to slower growth in the short-term. That is normal and well understood at this point. But investors also realize there is more clarity around tariffs today than there was a month ago. These capital allocators understand trade deals are on the way, along with hearing the administration promise lower tariff rates than originally announced. That clarity, and a more rational approach to the tariff rates, is giving investors confidence to put capital into the market. They know the ride could still be a little bumpy, but they have now line-of-sight to the other side of the volatility. Add in the fact that the Fed will likely cut interest rates in the coming months and it is hard to be bearish over the medium-to-long term. And if you are a bull over the medium-to-long term, than you want to buy assets when they are down year-to-date. But not every asset is down year-to-date. Both gold and bitcoin are up since January 1st, which is largely attributed to investor desire to find safety from uncertainty in sound money principles. The S&P 500 is up 12% in the last year and the Nasdaq is up 14% in those 12 months as well. So every capital allocator has a choice moving forward — you can buy into the insane predictions of a depression or you can remember that the United States of America is the greatest economy ever constructed, and our economy is built on the shoulders of the most technologically advanced, innovative companies in the history of the world. I don’t know how it became cool to be a pessimist. That strategy has never worked out over the long-run, so be a student of history and remember that reflexivity still rules the day. The faster stocks fall, the faster they can recover. And I still believe it is more likely than not that bitcoin, gold, and US stocks hit new all-time highs by the end of the year. Plenty of people disagree with that assessment, and that disagreement is important, because that is how markets are created. One side will win and one side will lose. Risk is the name of the game. So if you have an opinion on what is going to happen, put your money where your mouth is. Take a side and win or lose in the market. There is nothing better than capitalism. I hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow. – Anthony Pompliano Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management The CIA Deputy Director Talks China, Technology, Bitcoin, and CartelsMichael Ellis is the Deputy Director of the CIA. In this conversation we talk about the relationship between US and China, Taiwan, how they evaluate technology and AI, bitcoin, cartels, and what Micheal pays attention to on a daily basis. Enjoy! Podcast Sponsors
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