What To Expect: Today’s newsletter examines the NFL’s plan to introduce optical tracking to measure first-down yardage, similar to Hawk-Eye technology in tennis.

Plus, we discuss Nick Saban’s comments on NIL and the transfer portal, the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight on Netflix, WNBA ticket sales, and Arch Manning’s opting out of the new EA Sports college football video game.

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Stat of The Day: Michael Jordan is the highest-paid athlete of all time at $3.75 billion in earnings, according to Sportico’s Kurt Badenhausen. The Top 50 ranking includes 12 NBA players, 8 golfers, 31 Americans, 20 active athletes, and 1 woman (Serena Williams). Everyone on the list has made at least $550 million.

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The NFL is developing an optical tracking solution to measure first-down yardage that could potentially eliminate the “chain gang,” according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.

The tech-based project was tested in three stadiums throughout the 2023 NFL season — MetLife Stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, and Allegiant Stadium for Super Bowl 58 — and it is similar to the Hawk-Eye system in tennis, which uses 12 cameras throughout stadiums to determine whether a ball is in or out with near 100% accuracy in seconds.

NFL referees also wore smartwatches throughout the preseason, buzzing their wrists when the play clock hit zero to assist with delay of game calls. These changes must be approved by at least 24 owners at the annual competition committee meeting later this month. But, if they are approved, it would mark the most significant viewership change we have seen since ESPN debuted its “1st & Ten” computerized yellow line back in 1998.

The NFL often gets laughed at for its inability to adopt new technology. The chain gang, for instance, is more than 100 years old and was implemented when touchdowns were 5 points and field goals were 4. Add in the fact that FIFA debuted rechargeable balls at the most recent World Cup while NFL referee Gene Steratore was using an index card to determine first downs and much of this negative sentiment is justified.

However, I would argue that the NFL just hasn’t done a good job explaining itself. For example, since 2015, the NFL has worked with Zebra Technologies to implant a chip in every football during practice, preseason, regular season, and playoff games.

These RFID chips weigh just 3.3 grams, less than 1% of the football’s weight. They are about the size of a nickel, and they wirelessly broadcast data to recorders around each NFL stadium, triangulating the football’s signal to determine its precise location.

The NFL turns each chip on before a game kicks off and then shuts it down after to save battery. Three staff members are in the press box at each NFL game, monitoring all 54 footballs used during the contest. Player movements are tracked throughout the game, too, using RFID chips implanted in their shoulder pads.

This is how we get Next Gen stats, like how fast a player ran during a specific play or how high they jumped to catch the ball.

But this solution has never been good enough to use for yardage tracking because:

1. It doesn’t account for a player’s knee or elbow being down

2. The technology can’t determine if a player has possession of the ball

3. The chips only guarantee accuracy within 3 to 6 inches

Some of these questions still need to be answered. My guess is the NFL will combine RFID chip tracking with optical cameras located throughout the stadium and only use it in select situations — scoring plays, challenge flags, or after the 2-minute warning.

But these things also change over time, and while everyone else seems to be universally celebrating the move, I’m not convinced it’s the best long-term decision.

In 2022, the USFL tried a similar process, using an optical system to measure a ball’s placement on the field after the official spotted it. These reviews took several minutes to complete, and many players complained about the ball itself, as the chip made it 4 to 5 ounces heavier and distorted its overall weight and feeling.

Data also tells us that the chain gang comes out less than once per game — aka this is a much smaller problem than people realize — and introducing a video review process will almost certainly lead to expansion in the future, similar to what we have seen with video replay today where catches are broken down frame-by-frame each game.

That’s not to say it’s a worthless endeavor. The NFL is the world’s most successful sports league and deserves the benefit of the doubt. But introducing additional video review isn’t always a positive, and eliminating human intervention in favor of accurate measurements down to the millimeter could complicate things over time.

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What I’m Thinking/Reading/Watching…

1. Former Alabama head coach Nick Saban made headlines this week when he seemingly confirmed NIL and the transfer portal contributed to his retirement.

   “I thought we could have a hell of a team next year, and then maybe 70 or 80 percent of the players you talk to, all they want to know is two things: What assurances do I have that I’m going to play because they’re thinking about transferring, and how much are you going to pay me?” Saban recounted. “Our program here was always built on how much value can we create for your future and your personal development, academic success in graduating and developing an NFL career on the field.”

   This isn’t necessarily new information. Saban is 72 years old and has made several comments regarding his dislike for this new era of college football. But half the college football world has already run with the comments, using it as further evidence that new rules need to be changed despite record viewership last year.

   My take remains the same, though. NIL and the transfer portal are great individually. But when you combine the ability for college kids to transfer at a moment’s notice with boosters and universities offering them cash payments behind closed doors, everyone outside the student-athlete themselves is worse off.

   Much of this will be sorted out over the next few years, and I expect that college football will end up looking like a professional sports league—salary caps, guaranteed contracts, consolidation of conferences, and even more TV money.

2. This summer, Netflix is broadcasting a live boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul at AT&T Stadium. Tyson will be 58 years old at the time of the fight, compared to Paul at 27, and it will be an exhibition match, not a sanctioned fight.

   But this type of content fits perfectly into Netflix’s sports strategy. Instead of spending billions on live sports rights like its competitors, Netflix has quietly become a necessary app for all sports fans through docuseries (Drive to Survive and Full Swing), documentaries (David Beckham, Untold Series, etc.), and now live events (Netflix Cup, Netflix Slam, etc.). This has helped them maintain their status as the only profitable streaming service and is also a contributing factor to the company’s industry-leading churn (~2% compared to 4-8% for everyone else).

   P.S. This killed me — Jake Paul’s promotion company is using a headshot of Mike Tyson that is nearly two decades old to promote the fight.

3. The Las Vegas Aces have sold out of season tickets for the 2024 season, making them the first team ever to accomplish the feat in the WNBA’s 28-year history.

   This is just another example of the boom seen in women’s sports. Ticket sales and viewership aside, I’m seeing more venture deals focused on women’s sports cross my desk than ever before, including virtually every sport, from basketball and soccer to volleyball and tennis. This is usually a good indication of where valuations are headed.

4. EA Sports says over 10,000 college football players (or 90% of all FBS scholarship players) have already opted into their new video game, meaning, despite arguments to the contrary, the $600 annual payment was enough for most college football players. However, the week’s biggest news was that Texas backup quarterback Arch Manning declined to participate in the game.

   Manning declined to be included because he is “focused on playing football on the field.” Of course, the joke is that it’s probably a bigger distraction to opt out of the game rather than be included, which no one would have discussed.

   Instead, the more likely scenario is that Arch Manning realizes his last name is worth more than $600 annually. It’s not the money he cares about—Arch currently donates all his NIL money and isn’t hurting for cash—but it sets a licensing precedent and could lower his value in the future. Or maybe he just doesn’t want to be included in the game until he becomes a starting quarterback.

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